COVID 19 - WILL WORLDWIDE LOCKDOWNS IMPACT ROAD FATALITIES?

COVID 19 - WILL WORLDWIDE LOCKDOWNS IMPACT ROAD FATALITIES?

• An interactive table from comparethemarket.com.au explores 2018 road mortality rates worldwide to hypothesise the number of lives that could be saved with lockdown restrictions
• In 2018, Zimbabwe had the highest road mortality rate per 100,000 with almost 38 deaths
• Data from 2020 indicates Australia’s road mortality during COVID lockdowns are the lowest they’ve been in 10 years

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With stay-at-home restrictions and social distancing rules being enforced around the world, road traffic has seen a considerable decrease in many countries as communities work to flatten the curve of COVID-19.[i] With this in mind, the question remains – how likely is it that the significant decrease in road users could mean a reduction in road-related mortalities?

Comparethemarket.com.au has created an interactive table that explores different lockdown restrictions around the world and how they could be affecting road mortality rates in local communities. Data was recorded for 15 countries to gain a measure of comparison.

Based on 2018 data from the table below, there was an average road mortality rate of 12,867 people per month in 2018 across the 15 countries selected. Some countries have seen a traffic decrease of up to 40% since restrictions started,[ii] indicating that even a 1% drop in this figure could result in 128 people staying alive.

In Australia as an example, the road mortality rate in the year ending June 2020 was the lowest it’s ever been in 10 years, with 91 less mortalities than the previous year.[iii] Although more up-to-date data is not yet available for other countries, a survey in Russia saw 85% of correspondents self-isolating at home during April, which would see a large portion of commutes suspended.[iv] By looking at such statistics, it is plausible that a considerable decrease in road fatalities could be occurring across the globe.

To represent global data, two countries per continent (excluding Antarctica) with the highest average fatalities per 100,000 people were analysed in the table below. Three countries were chosen from Europe, Africa and Asia to represent the world’s largest continents. The following table could be used to predict the potential number of lives that could be saved per month during lockdown with less drivers on the road. An interactive version can be found here.

The population has been noted according to a live population tracker. This information was accurate as of 11 June 2020. Source: Worldometer. (2020). Current world population. Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/. Accessed 11 June 2020. The number of vehicles have been noted according to WHO. This information was accurate as of 11 June 2020. Source: World Health Organisation. (2018). Death on the roads: Based on the WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018. Retrieved from https://extranet.who.int/roadsafety/death-on-the-roads/#deaths. Accessed 11 June 2020.

To view further information such as specific stay-at-home restrictions in each country, other factors influencing the data and the fully interactive table, please click here.

[i] Road Safety UAE - Press Release: COVID-19 Measures Dramatically Reduce Road Traffic and Congestion (TomTom Data April Week 1+2 2020 vs 2019): http://www.roadsafetyuae.com/statistics/

[ii] Federal Highway Administration - Travel Monitoring: Traffic Volume Trends: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm

[iii] Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications - Road deaths: 12 months total Australia June 2020: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiMTU1MjFmMWEtNWI2Yy00Mjc2LTg1NzQtZmUwOGE0MTE0MTVhIiwidCI6ImFhMjFiNjQwLWJhYzItNDU2ZC04NTA1LWYyY2MwN2Y1MTc4NCJ9

[iv] Ipsos - Most of us are staying at home to stop spread of COVID-19, shows latest poll: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-04/coronavirus-wave-7-pr-april-8-ipsos.pdf

[v] World Health Organisation - Death on the roads: Based on the WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018: https://extranet.who.int/roadsafety/death-on-the-roads/#deaths

[vi] U.S. Department of Transportation - Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Quarter of 2019: https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812783

[vii] International Transport Forum - Road Safety Annual Report 2019: https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/mexico-road-safety.pdf

[viii] Anastasiya Pyankova - Road traffic mortality in Russia: Record linkage of police data and vital statistics: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332057226_ROAD_TRAFFIC_MORATLITY_IN_RUSSIA_RECORD_LINKAGE_OF_POLICE_DATA_AND_VITAL_STATISTICS

[ix] World Health Organisation - 2018/2019 Road-traffic data for WHO European Region: http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/440763/2018-2019-road-traffic-fatality-data.pdf?ua=1

[x] Our World in Data - Road traffic deaths, 1990 to 2017:  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/road-traffic-deaths-sdgs?country=~VEN

[xi] Ibid.

[xii] Ministry of Transport - Annual road deaths 2019 (provisional): https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/road-safety-resources/road-deaths/annual-road-deaths-2019-provisional/